MY BEST TRADE FOR THE WEEK WAS GETTING STOPPED OUT IN THIS POSITION
Find out how I navigate my portfolio when I am clueless as to the next direction of the bond and equity markets.
I’ve never been much of a macro/fundamental guy myself. I find it irrelevant for my preferred timeframe of trading. People showing multiple charts of various fundamental indicators at an extreme to make a point and attract attention. This chart shows you this is about to happen, that chart shows you that is about to happen, but no one ever tells you when is a good time to buy or sell. It is just information plotted on a chart that is wrapped around in a narrative with the purpose of making you think that something good or bad will happen soon. But I am a trader and I want to know a few things on top of just the macro chart showing me a doomsday scenario. That is why I purposefully avoid macro accounts on Twitter and befriend only traders. When I look at information I want to have an answer to the following question:
What the trade is.
What will constitute a trigger to enter and when would be a reasonable price to exit.
What instruments I should use and why would I want to use them.
At what point the trade will be invalidated
Is the risk worth taking? What is my risk to reward in this trade if it works out as intended
It is fun to talk economics/fundamentals/politics at the table with friends but I can assure that it is not a profitable endeavor. When it comes to placing a trade you should speak with traders and hear what they have to say.
And if you ask me what your best trade is today I will say out and loud - I DON’T KNOW. It is not that I don’t have a few trades lined up sitting in my watchlist. It is because all trades will depend on what happens in bonds in the coming weeks. And what will happen to bonds is beyond anyone’s control.
Let me tell you why I think my best trade this week was to get stopped out of my short position in $UB_F (TLT).